China walks Saudi-Iran tightrope as MBS visits

Shenzhen, China – Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has arrived in China where he will meet President Xi Jinping in hopes of bolstering an image tarnished internationally over the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey last year.

The two-day visit in Beijing is expected to focus on energy deals for resource-hungry China and regional economic agreements that align with Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative [BRI], Xi’s signature infrastructure initiative spanning across Southeast, South and Central Asia to the Horn of Africa.

“The leadership in Riyadh and Beijing probably realise the strategic importance of their relationship on the energy front and most recent attempts have been driving it toward cooperation in other areas,” Ayham Kamel, Middle East and North Africa expert with the Eurasia Group, told Al Jazeera.

China is Saudi Arabia‘s largest trading partner, with total bilateral trade in goods standing at $63.3bn last year. In 2017, during the last major state visit to Beijing by Saudi Arabia’s King Salman, the two sides inked deals worth around $65bn, mostly related to energy and technology.

سمو #ولي_العهد يصل إلى جمهورية #الصين في زيارة رسمية.https://t.co/PJxre8I0wT#ولي_العهد_في_الصين #واس pic.twitter.com/VRiBnd8BW4

— واس (@spagov) February 21, 2019

“[MBS] is looking for building greater confidence with the Chinese leadership, demonstrating that he has options beyond the West, and showcasing that he remains the heart of the leadership circle and the next king of Saudi Arabia,” Kamel said.

Besides an audience with Xi, the crown prince will meet with Vice Premier of the State Council, Han Zheng, who will chair a China-Saudi High-level Joint Committee meeting where the deals will likely be hashed out.

Zhu Weilie, director of the China-Arab Cooperation Forum Research Center, when contacted by Al Jazeera referred to his comments published in the Shanghai Observer earlier this week in which he stated he believed “development of the economic zone along the Red Sea coast and cooperation on energy” will be the main focus of the talks beginning on Thursday.

The zone launched by MBS in 2017 under the acronym NEOM is expected to see around $500bn in investments by Riyadh upon completion.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (R) meets his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif in Beijing [How Hwee Young/Pool via Reuters]

Iran competition 

With China the third and final leg of an Asia tour that saw the crown prince attempt to sidestep friction during high-level meetings in Pakistan and India over a major suicide attack in Indian administered-Kashmir, getting down to business should be a welcome change for MBS.

Yet Beijing is also attempting a balancing act of its own, having just hosted Mohammad Javad Zarif, the foreign minister of Iran – Saudi Arabia’s regional rival – on Tuesday. At the same time, one of the crown jewels of its BRI programme – Gwadar Port in the Pakistani province of Balochistan – sits at the fulcrum.

In Pakistan, MBS pledged $10bn in investments for a refinery and petrochemical complex at Gwadar, which lies at the heart of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor – a connection of roads, rail and other infrastructure linking to the port and a major part of Beijing’s and Islamabad’s BRI relationship.

“The port of Gwadar is strategically very important to China as a way to circumvent the Straits of Malacca and the Chinese are not crazy about others in that pond, particularly others that may have a different agenda,” James M. Dorsey, a senior fellow at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, told Al Jazeera.

Dorsey said Riyadh may see Balochistan as “an investment target or a place where it could destabilise Iran from” but it is unclear how much China wants Saudi Arabia to take on leading role considering the sensitivities in Iran.

Geng Shuang, China’s ministry of foreign affairs spokesperson, said on Tuesday that the Chinese government was “pleased” by the Saudi investment in Pakistan and further “welcomes” the participation of “third parties” in the economic corridor.

“They are walking a tightrope between Saudi Arabia and Iran,” Dorsey said of China. “How long they will be able to do that is a question.”

Kamel said “Iran might sense some anxiety as Riyadh attempts to narrow and curtail Tehran’s partnerships in the East and West” but added that Saudi Arabia’s focus is much wider than just its regional foe.

Uighur issue

One issue unlikely to come up however, at least not publicly, is China’s treatment of Uighur and other Muslim minorities in its northwestern region of Xinjiang, where it is alleged that an estimated one million people have been detained and sent to “concentration camps” against their will – a charge denied by Beijing which says these are “voluntary” vocational training facilities.

“Saudi Arabia’s silence has been deafening on this,” Dorsey said. “Public pressure is very regulated in Saudi Arabia. We don’t even know if it exists in regards to the Uighurs.”

On February 10, the Turkish government under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called the detentions “a great shame for humanity” and decried the “torture and political brainwashing” alleged to be occurring in them.

“Turkey’s president was responding to public pressure,” Dorsey said. “[MBS] doesn’t have quite that degree of pressure.”

According to Kamel, “the Uighur issue can be viewed as a strategic lever and important issue for Turkey but Saudi Arabia does not particularly care about this group given its geopolitical competition with Ankara.”

Chas Freeman, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said the crown prince’s visit serves many purpose, including advances Riyadh’s goal of diversifying away from over-reliance on the United States and offering competition to Iran, which is also wooing China.

“It shows that, despite his tarnished reputation in the West, his power is respected in the East,” Freeman said. “It courts what is clearly the market of the future for Saudi Arabia.”

For China, a robust relationship with Saudi Arabia opens a market for its increasingly advanced armaments, construction and telecommunications industries and secures an important source of energy imports,” added Freeman.

“It shows that, despite Chinese suppression of Islam in Xinjiang and elsewhere, China can sustain mutually advantageous relationships with a leading Muslim country.”